Equities posted strong gains over the two-week period, with broad-based strength across major indices as earlier weakness faded. The move was supported by easing geopolitical pressure, particularly signs of stabilization around the Iran conflict.
Inflation remains firm but not accelerating, while growth data stayed steady enough to support sentiment. Rates eased modestly, and commodities were mixed, with oil’s pullback helping reinforce a more stable risk tone.
| Stock Index | Value | 12/31/25 Close | 4/9 Close | WK % Chg | YTD % Chg | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | $6,824.66 | 6,845.50 | $6,477.16 | 5.37% | -0.30% | SPX |
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg | $48,185.80 | 48,063.29 | $45,960.11 | 4.84% | 0.25% | DJIA |
| Nasdaq Composite | $22,822.42 | 23,241.99 | $21,408.08 | 6.61% | -1.81% | COMP |
| NYSE Composite | $22,830.72 | 22,003.93 | $21,843.97 | 4.52% | 3.76% | NYA |
Equity markets posted strong gains over the two-week stretch, rebounding from prior weakness. The S&P 500 rose 5.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.84%, the Nasdaq Composite led higher with a 6.61% increase, and the NYSE Composite advanced 4.52%. Despite the rebound, year-to-date performance remains mixed.
Some of the recent strength reflects easing geopolitical concerns, as markets responded to signs of stabilization surrounding the Iran conflict. Earlier volatility, largely driven by energy price spikes, has moderated, helping support risk sentiment.
Treasuries moved higher over the two weeks, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.281%, down 14.3 basis points (3.2%) over the period, though still up 2.6% year-to-date.
The recent move lower reflects some safe-haven demand and easing rate pressure, though broader yield trends continue to be influenced by inflation expectations tied in part to energy market volatility. The yield curve has largely normalized, with only a slight inversion remaining at the very front end.
The dollar drifted slightly lower over the period, as improving risk sentiment and softer safe-haven demand weighed on support.
With energy volatility easing and yields moderating, FX markets remained broadly rangebound, still searching for a clearer catalyst to establish direction.
Commodities were mixed over the two weeks. Brent crude oil declined 5.86% but remains significantly higher year-to-date (+57.63%), reflecting ongoing geopolitical risk and supply concerns.
Cocoa rose 5.15% on the week but remains sharply lower year-to-date (-45.14%), continuing to show elevated volatility. Coffee declined 4.53%, while grains were weaker, with corn (-4.93%) and wheat (-5.04%) both lower. Soybeans were relatively flat. Milk (+5.58%) and palm oil (+1.84%) posted gains.
It was a fairly active two weeks of economic data, especially with the inclusion of last week’s releases due to the holiday. ISM services came in slightly lower at 54.0%, while manufacturing remained in expansion. Durable goods data was mixed, and consumer credit increased to $9.5 billion.
Inflation data came in firm, with CPI rising 0.9% month-over-month and Core CPI holding at 0.2%. PCE and Core PCE both increased 0.4%. Elevated energy prices, partly tied to ongoing tensions involving Iran and key oil supply routes, continue to play a role in keeping inflation pressures persistent.
Labor market data remained stable, with jobless claims at 219,000. Prior employment data showed solid job growth and a slight decline in unemployment, though consumer sentiment fell to 47.6, signaling some softening in confidence.
Recent market moves highlight how geopolitical events are feeding into inflation and rate expectations.
While markets appear to be treating the Iran conflict as contained for now, its impact on energy prices continues to influence the broader macro environment.
Markets pushed higher again this week, continuing a steady upward grind even as the macro backdrop stayed anything but quiet.
Strong consumer data and firm services activity kept sentiment supported, while inflation pressures and geopolitical risks continued to simmer…
Investors continue leaning into resilience despite a mixed and only moderately instructive data backdrop.
Inflation showed signs of easing, rates edged higher without disruption, and geopolitical risk—particularly in energy—remained present but not defining.
The shutdown’s data backlog is still rippling through reports leaving traders piecing together a story from fragments.