Q2 2026
Markets pulled back, yields held steady, and commodities drifted, the kind of week that looks quiet until you realize how much uncertainty is packed into the silence.
The story hasn’t changed: inflation’s easing, growth’s hanging on, and the Fed’s next move depends on reports that still haven’t printed. In a data vacuum, confidence becomes its own asset, and this week, even that felt thin.
Markets can price risk, but not guesswork, and right now, there’s too much of the latter.
Farnam St. Wisdom
The price of being approximately right is going up.
There are periods in business when a rising tide forgives a great many sins.
Historical Case Study
The Railroad Boom and Bust
The infrastructure survived. Much of the capital did not.
Contrarian Insight
There Is No Average Customer
The economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter. It is a useful number. It is also a number that no business actually experiences.
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In a data vacuum, confidence becomes its own asset.
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From the Desk
Our job is not to predict the next move.
It’s to prepare for a range of outcomes and stay ready to act.